Saturday, October 24 10:33 am PT: Can’t make it to Los Angeles? No cable TV privileges in the cell block assigned to you? No problem: check back in this space beginning at 9 p.m. ET Saturday for live, up-to-the-condescending-minute coverage of UFC 104: Machida vs. ‘Shogun.' Exciting new technology will allow you
to ask questions, interact, and libel one another -- all in real time. Don’t miss it.
Saturday, October 24 10:30 am PT: Lyoto Machida fights two wars during Saturday’s UFC 104 main event in Los Angeles: the war against Mauricio Rua, and the war of perception that Rua may not be the same one we remember.
Rua, once believed to be the most promising 205-pound athlete in the world, has looked human in recent outings against Mark Coleman and Forrest Griffin. He believes -- and fans believe -- knee surgeries have corrected his cardio and aggression issues. What they may not correct is his tendency to take a punch in order to give one. In Machida’s case, he’s not open to a fair trade.
In Rua’s favor: Machida’s relative inexperience dealing with jiu-jitsu during live competition. Rua is not Rickson Gracie, but he’s grades above Tito Ortiz, who sunk in a triangle choke on Machida in 2008.
Might Look Like: Machida vs. Thiago Silva, a snub-nosed striker swinging at air while Machida laughs quietly to himself and waits for an opportunity to resurrect 5,000 drafty karate schools around the country.
Third-Party Investor: Anderson Silva, who might be persuaded to fight Rua if pal Machida comes up short.
Who Wins: I would love to be contrary and spin an elaborate scenario that results in Rua winning. But I can’t. Someone will figure Machida out eventually, but Rua -- no master of the rigid game plan -- isn’t the guy to do it. Machida by TKO.
Saturday, October 24 10:13 am PT: Guys with more to lose than just teeth.
Lyoto Machida: The 15-0 record is a pressure cooker -- without the “unbeatable” tag, would Lyoto Machida’s eccentric style be as captivating?
Joe Stevenson: A strong UFC start was sidetracked by the B.J. Penn loss: Joe Stevenson is 2-2 since that bout. To flirt with the top of the ladder again, beating Spencer Fisher isn’t optional.
Yushin Okami: On numbers alone, the 7-1 Octagon record should have earned Yushin Okami a title shot against Anderson Silva. Beating Chael Sonnen decisively could make him harder to ignore. (Though both fans and the promotion are doing solid work on that front.)
“Saw VI”: “Saw V” was the “Au Revoir Les Enfants” of movies featuring fake and displaced intestines. Expectations are high.
In 15 career fights, the UFC’s light-heavyweight champion -- or as pronounced by Lyoto Machida himself, champeeon -- has rarely been tested by a high level of muay Thai. Thiago Silva has good stand-up, but few wins against top opposition; Sam Greco, virtually a pure kickboxer, took Machida the distance in 2004, but also outweighed him considerably. There’s not much precedence to draw on.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is a muay Thai Tasmanian devil -- all arms and legs. Aggression and accuracy could be a proper solution to Machida’s head movement. So could a hammer. Rua can only pick one Saturday.
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