Saturday, September 19 11:30 am PT: In six years of UFC competition, only two men have defeated Rich Franklin, both of whom happen to be the two best middleweights in the sport. Franklin’s secret appears to be that he wants it as badly in the closing thirty seconds of a bout as most do in the opening thirty. His motivation doesn’t wither. And that’s a pretty big deal.
Vitor Belfort’s motivation has been the anchor of his career: he has all the natural talent anyone could ask for, top-notch training, and a particular skillset -- fast, dangerous, heavy hands -- that you can’t replicate. But he wants things to go his way. And when they don’t, he checks out.
Belfort throws straight down the line; Franklin loops. Belfort fades late; Franklin sucks it up. It’s not about who has heavier hands, but who can keep them up longer.
Might Look Like: Belfort vs. Chuck Liddell, with Belfort dropping a decision to the busier striker; or Franklin-Wanderlei Silva, with Franklin eating some artillery, covering to regroup, and picking at an opponent tired of hitting him.
Third-Party Investor: The UFC, which is in dire need of a middleweight contender to excite both fans and champion Anderson Silva. Belfort in a win over a durable Franklin sends him right to the edge.
Who Wins: Franklin. He’s too cautious to suffer a blitz, too strong to toss, and too conditioned to outlast.
Saturday, September 19 9:15 am PT: In and out of the cage, Rich Franklin is making a career out of lateral movement: bumped from the middleweight division by Anderson Silva, he appears to have settled into a complacent role as filler putty for headlining holes in the UFC’s main events.
UFC 93 was a light heavyweight bout against Dan Henderson; UFC 99, a catch-weight bout against Wanderlei Silva; now there’s Dallas and UFC 103, which sees him in another 195-pound fence-straddle against a returning Vitor Belfort. It’s hard to ascertain exactly what the fight means: Franklin is supposed to be a 205-pound presence, so beating Belfort -- who eyes the 185-pound division -- can’t influence that much. Belfort has more to gain here.
Saturday, September 19 2:20 am PT: Unemployment is on the rise everywhere. A few guys who can’t afford a loss Saturday:
Mirko Filipovic Performances against Gonzaga in the UK and Overeem in Japan dulled his shine considerably: he can’t look bad against a largely-unknown Junior dos Santos without virtually terminating his career.
Drew McFedries He brings it, but a possible 4-5 record in the UFC is a stretch.
Rafael dos Anjos A 155-pound class with a surplus of talent can’t abide by a 0-3 participant.
Floyd Mayweather The insult-a-second boxer doesn’t think MMA is a threat to boxing; if it comes within a few thousands homes of beating his bout with Juan Manuel Marquez Saturday -- or worse, exceeds it -- he’s going to have to spin a new broken record.
Saturday, September 19 12:00 am PT: Will Vitor Belfort shrink?
Even if you excuse his dynamic debut performance at UFC 13 -- all hands, no effort -- as the product of subpar opposition, Vitor Belfort is still a sharp, tight stand-up artist who can end fights faster than IV sedation.
The ticks of the clock are Belfort’s biggest issues: as the fight wears, he fades mentally, and instructs his body to do the same physically. Whether that’s been corrected at Xtreme Couture hasn’t been discovered. Rich Franklin will prompt him for an answer.
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